Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 09 2023 09:01:44

ACUS48 KWNS 090901
SWOD48
SPC AC 090859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper trough will eject eastward across the central Plains on Day
4/Thursday, with attendant strong mid-level jet. A surface low is
likewise forecast to develop slowly eastward across KS/NE through
Thursday evening, with a dryline extending southward from this low
into the southern Plains. Strong ascent associated with the upper
trough and mid-level jet will likely encourage convective initiation
near the surface triple point and down the length of the dryline
into eastern KS by late Thursday afternoon. There is still some
uncertainty regarding the quality of low-level moisture return
across the southern/central Plains. This will impact the degree of
instability which can develop across the warm sector. Still,
favoring the slightly more moist and recently consistent ECMWF
solutions lends enough confidence to add a small 15% severe area for
Thursday across parts of eastern KS, southeastern NE, far
northwestern MO, and far southwestern IA. Forecast wind profiles
would favor supercells and a threat for large hail with any
convection that can form and be sustained through Thursday evening.

Some threat for mainly strong to damaging winds could persist on Day
5/Friday downstream across parts of the Midwest/OH Valley as the
upper trough continues eastward. But, low-level moisture will
probably be even more limited with eastward extent across these
areas, and forecast instability appears quite weak. Have therefore
not included a 15% severe area for Friday. Differences in the
evolution and placement of the upper trough become more pronounced
in model guidance by Day 6/Saturday. Still, depending on quality of
the low-level moisture return ahead of a surface low and cold front,
there appears to be a low chance for strong to damaging winds across
parts of the Atlantic Coast states given the strength of the
low/mid-level wind fields. But, too much uncertainty currently
exists to add an area for Saturday. Severe potential will quickly
become negligible from Day 7/Sunday onward as a cold front clears
the East Coast and south FL.

...Gleason.. 10/09/2023

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