Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 09 2023 07:55:51

FOUS30 KWBC 090755
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 AM EDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 09 2023 - 12Z Tue Oct 10 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira



Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 10 2023 - 12Z Wed Oct 11 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTH TEXAS...

....South Texas...
An amplifying trough moving across the southwestern U.S. and
northwestern Mexico is expected to direct the remnant energy
associated with Tropical Storm Max, followed quickly by energy
associated with Tropical Storm Lidia, across northern Mexico.=20
Moisture associated with these systems in addition to increasing
low level southerly flow ahead of a wave lifting through the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico will support steadily rising PWs
across the region on Tuesday.  Guidance shows PWs climbing to
2-2.5 inches (2-3 standard deviations above normal) along a low
level boundary lifting north along with the wave.  This deep
moisture, along with large-scale ascent afforded in part by
right-entrance region upper jet forcing, will likely support the
development of heavy precipitation across parts of the area.  With
plenty of differences in the details, guidance generally indicates
two areas of heavy amounts -- one inland across southern Texas in
the vicinity of the better mid-to-upper level forcing; and a
second area near the coast and the developing surface wave.=20
Models disagree as to how far, if at all, this second area will
develop and spread inland.  While confidence in the details is
limited, still felt there was enough of a model signal to maintain
a Slight Risk across portions of the region, with the potential
for excessive rain remaining a concern especially across urbanized
areas and areas impacted by recent rains.

Pereira


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8KXDFLoF53G8sJqcwXHr-lv887uREFQVRNoS5x5sw6Lj=
1rQFT5GLMZCyWwarthAURj7bHbiiUd05rGEpSc5fru1DqjA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8KXDFLoF53G8sJqcwXHr-lv887uREFQVRNoS5x5sw6Lj=
1rQFT5GLMZCyWwarthAURj7bHbiiUd05rGEpSc5fd4g3BbM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8KXDFLoF53G8sJqcwXHr-lv887uREFQVRNoS5x5sw6Lj=
1rQFT5GLMZCyWwarthAURj7bHbiiUd05rGEpSc5fevA696E$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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