Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 09 2023 05:53:47

ACUS02 KWNS 090553
SWODY2
SPC AC 090552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A large, closed upper cyclone will remain over the Great Lakes,
Ontario, and Quebec on Tuesday, with generally cyclonic flow aloft
remaining prevalent over much of the eastern CONUS. Low-level
moisture will continue streaming northward through the period across
parts of the southern/central Plains and towards the Ozarks/mid MS
Valley. Convection should be suppressed through much of the day
across these regions owing to substantial MLCIN and a cap. But, a
band of elevated thunderstorms is forecast to eventually develop
Tuesday evening/night in association with strengthening low-level
warm advection across parts of eastern NE/KS into the mid MS Valley.
Most guidance continues to forecast fairly weak MUCAPE even in the
presence of gradually strengthening deep-layer shear. This suggests
any hail threat with these elevated thunderstorms should remain
sub-severe.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
the northern Rockies as a mid-level shortwave trough moves
northeastward through the day. Other sporadic lightning flashes may
be noted with low-topped convection along/near the Pacific Northwest
Coast beneath a cold upper-level trough/low. Instability is expected
to remain rather weak across both of these regions owing to limited
low-level moisture.

Occasional thunderstorms could also occur across parts of south FL
and the Keys to the south of a decaying/weak front, and over
portions of the Big Bend and coastal/deep south TX as the
mid/upper-level remnants of a tropical system over the eastern
Pacific move northeastward across Mexico through the period.
Appreciable surface-based instability will likely remain offshore of
deep south TX, along with any meaningful severe potential.

...Gleason.. 10/09/2023

$$

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