Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 09 2023 04:36:14

ACUS01 KWNS 090436
SWODY1
SPC AC 090434

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Discussion...

Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably over the
next 24-36hr with a deep upper trough holding over the eastern US,
but a weak ridge will slowly break down over the Rockies. Offshore
flow is expected to persist over all but the extreme southern tip of
FL as a pronounced surface front sags toward the Straits. As the
front stalls, a corridor of high PW will extend along the frontal
zone such that weak buoyancy will persist across this region despite
the weak lapse rates. Some risk for lightning will exist with
convection that evolves near the front.

Farther west, strong surface heating is once again expected across
the lower desert regions of the southwestern US. As a result,
isolated thunderstorms will develop, especially over the higher
elevations of AZ into NM. This activity will be strongly diurnal in
nature and should wane with loss of heating.

Leading edge of large-scale ascent will spread across the northern
inter-mountain region later in the day1 period. While low-level
moisture will be scant across this region, steep lapse rates will
result in weak buoyancy ahead of a surface front that should advance
into the northern Rockies Monday evening. Weak convection, and
possibly a few flashes of lightning, are expected with this
activity.

...Darrow/Weinman.. 10/09/2023

$$

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