Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 08 2023 19:48:42

ACUS01 KWNS 081948
SWODY1
SPC AC 081947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20Z Update...
Minor expansions have been made to the general thunderstorm areas
across the Southwest based on visible satellite trends, but the
previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below
for more information.

...Dean.. 10/08/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023/

....Synopsis...
A cool, dry continental air mass remains in place across much of the
CONUS, and will limit the potential for thunderstorms with the
exception of a few regions. Over the lower Great Lakes, warm lake
water temperatures coupled with cold temperatures aloft associated
with an upper low will support sufficient buoyancy for a few
lightning strikes. Steep lapse rates over the Southwest combined
with a modest influx of low to mid-level moisture will support
isolated to scattered terrain-driven thunderstorms. Given inverted-V
thermodynamic profiles in the lowest 2-3 km, a few strong wind gusts
are possible. Across the southern FL Panhandle, weak forcing for
ascent along a southward-migrating cold front within a weakly capped
environment should support isolated thunderstorms by mid/late
afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow may support transient storm
organization, but confidence in storm coverage and residence time
over land is fairly low and precludes introducing any severe
probabilities.

$$

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