Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 08 2023 16:00:40

ACUS01 KWNS 081600
SWODY1
SPC AC 081559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Synopsis...
A cool, dry continental air mass remains in place across much of the
CONUS, and will limit the potential for thunderstorms with the
exception of a few regions. Over the lower Great Lakes, warm lake
water temperatures coupled with cold temperatures aloft associated
with an upper low will support sufficient buoyancy for a few
lightning strikes. Steep lapse rates over the Southwest combined
with a modest influx of low to mid-level moisture will support
isolated to scattered terrain-driven thunderstorms. Given inverted-V
thermodynamic profiles in the lowest 2-3 km, a few strong wind gusts
are possible. Across the southern FL Panhandle, weak forcing for
ascent along a southward-migrating cold front within a weakly capped
environment should support isolated thunderstorms by mid/late
afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow may support transient storm
organization, but confidence in storm coverage and residence time
over land is fairly low and precludes introducing any severe
probabilities.

...Moore/Hart.. 10/08/2023

$$

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