Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 08 2023 12:29:12

ACUS01 KWNS 081229
SWODY1
SPC AC 081227

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
A major deep-layer cyclone initially centered over southeastern ON
is forecast to retrograde north-northwestward across westernmost
parts of QC and toward James Bay through the period.  At 500 mb,
this vast vortex (as defined inside closed isohypses) will cover
most of the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS, and a substantial fraction of
eastern Canada as well.  A series of mostly low-amplitude shortwaves
will orbit the gyre from the upper Mississippi Valley across the
Ohio Valley to the Northeast.  One more day of associated cold
midlevel air -- overlying a warm and moist near-surface layer over
the leeward portions of the Lower Great Lakes and adjacent near-
shore areas -- will support sporadic thunder potential there before
the low moves away and fills somewhat.

The associated surface cold front is drifting southward over south-
central FL, and should continue to do so through the remainder of
the period.  Isolated mainly afternoon thunderstorms are possible
along and south of the front over south FL, where rich low-level
moisture and diurnal heating may overcome modest midlevel lapse
rates and sustain MLCAPE reaching the 1000-1500 J/kg range in
magnitude, over sufficient depth for lightning generation.  In the
Desert Southwest, marginal low/middle-level moisture and slow-moving
areas of large-scale ascent (related to vorticity maxima meandering
erratically near the mean upper ridge) will support pockets of
thunderstorm potential, especially over higher terrain of the
Mogollon Rim area and southern AZ near the international border.

...Edwards/Broyles.. 10/08/2023

$$

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