Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 08 2023 07:29:08

ACUS03 KWNS 080729
SWODY3
SPC AC 080728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A large, closed upper cyclone should remain centered over Ontario
and Quebec on Tuesday, with generally cyclonic flow aloft remaining
prevalent over much of the eastern states. Low-level moisture is
forecast to continue streaming northward through the period across
parts of the southern/central Plains and towards the Ozarks/mid MS
Valley. Convective potential should be suppressed through much of
the day across these regions owing to substantial MLCIN and a cap.
But, a band of elevated thunderstorms may eventually develop Tuesday
night in tandem with strengthening low-level warm advection across
parts of eastern NE/KS into the mid MS Valley. Most guidance
suggests MUCAPE will remain below 1000 J/kg even in the presence of
gradually strengthening deep-layer shear, which suggests any hail
threat should generally remain sub-severe.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern
Rockies as a mid-level shortwave trough moves northeastward through
the day. Other sporadic lightning flashes may be noted with
low-topped convection along/near the Pacific Northwest Coast beneath
a cold upper-level trough/low. Instability is expected to remain too
weak across both of these regions to support any meaningful severe
potential. Occasional thunderstorms could also occur across parts of
south FL and the Keys to the south of a decaying/weak front, and
over portions of coastal/deep south TX.

...Gleason.. 10/08/2023

$$

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