Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 08 2023 04:48:38

ACUS01 KWNS 080448
SWODY1
SPC AC 080447

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

....Discussion...

Large-scale pattern will change little through the day1 period as
upper troughing holds across the eastern US with ridging over the
Rockies. This flow regime will result in offshore flow across all
but the extreme southern tip of FL, east of the Rockies. Cold air
spreading across the lower Great Lakes should continue to prove
favorable for some lake effect downstream of lakes Erie and Ontario
where a few flashes of lightning can not be ruled out in the deeper
updrafts. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible near the surface
front over south FL.

The greatest concentration of convection will likely be noted over
the higher elevations of northern/eastern AZ beneath the upper
ridge. NAM forecast sounding for FLG at 21z exhibits steep lapse
rates through 6km with ample buoyancy for deep convection capable of
generating lightning. Low PW values and weak shear are not favorable
for large hail/wind.

...Darrow/Weinman.. 10/08/2023

$$

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