Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 08 2023 03:54:27

AWUS01 KWNH 080354
FFGMPD
MEZ000-081000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1141
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1153 PM EDT Sat Oct 07 2023

Areas affected...Maine

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080352Z - 081000Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across Maine, although a
gradual northward shift and lessening of the heaviest rain rates
is expected through 10Z.

Discussion...The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Philippe
continue to shift northward across coastal areas of Maine tonight,
with widespread areas of 0.5-1.5 inch/hr rain rates noted per
observations.  The heaviest of rainfall was focused across
southern and central Maine from just northeast of Portland through
Bangor and northward through Millinocket.  These rates are
approaching 3-hour FFG thresholds (that are generally in the
1.5-2.5 inch range), and with multiple hours of moderate to heavy
rainfall remaining likely through 10Z, flash flooding will remain
possible.

Models and observations both depict a northward shift in heavier
rain rates over the next few hours.  Lessening rain rates are
expected to develop northward from coastal areas into central
Maine gradually, with 0.5+ inch/hr rain rates expected through 06Z
across coastal areas and through 08Z or so across central areas.=20
Rainfall totals from now through 10Z should range from 1.5-2.5
inches in coastal areas, and 2.5-3 inches across central Maine.=20
Again, these rates and totals will result in a continued flash
flood threat tonight, although a lessening of the overall risk is
probable to commence beyond 08Z or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9rj3ISqC-8d31XcU3q2t85eVeXcPTOY8N5ZDhmeYpAugo2B8WphtmVM2iXAgsYDhC28n=
CQs93fAS5mogPnuZG-6y33w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   47186896 47096814 46186768 45096773 44226852=20
            44086959 44587041 45737059 46447022 47046965=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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