Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 07 2023 07:29:32

ACUS03 KWNS 070729
SWODY3
SPC AC 070728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A closed upper cyclone and related occluded surface low are forecast
to retrograde westward slightly on Monday across parts of eastern
Canada and the Great Lakes. Low-level moisture should begin
advancing northward across parts of the southern Plains through the
period. But, instability appears insufficient to support
thunderstorms over this region. While low-level convergence and
large-scale ascent appear weak, isolated thunderstorms may still
occur Monday afternoon along/south of a remnant front across
portions of south FL and the Keys. Otherwise, additional convection
is forecast to develop through the day across parts of AZ into
western NM, largely aided by terrain-driven circulations along/near
the Mogollon Rim.

An upper trough over the eastern Pacific at the start of the period
should advance quickly eastward across the Pacific Northwest by
Monday evening. Low-level moisture and instability are both expected
to remain limited ahead of this feature. Still, some chance for
isolated convection may eventually be realized across parts of ID,
western MT, and vicinity as low-level lapse rates steepen with
daytime heating and as mid-level temperatures gradually cool with
the approach of the upper trough. Instability is forecast to remain
too weak to support a meaningful threat for organized severe
thunderstorms.

...Gleason.. 10/07/2023

$$

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