Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 06 2023 16:10:29

ACUS01 KWNS 061610
SWODY1
SPC AC 061608

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN....

....SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts may
occur this afternoon in southwest Lower Michigan.

....Southwest Lower MI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough over the
upper midwest digging into the western Great Lakes.  This trough and
its associated surface cold front will move across southern Lake
Michigan this afternoon during the peak-heating period.  Strong
heating ahead of the front is leading to steep low-level lapse
rates.  CAPE values will be weak (less than 500 J/kg).  However,
given the favorable timing of the system, strong winds aloft, and
steep low-level lapse rates, it appears possible that a few
strong/severe wind gusts could occur with showers/thunderstorms
along the coast of southwest Lower MI.  Therefore have added a small
MRGL risk area for this scenario.  Cold temperatures aloft and
ambient vorticity near the upper trough could also result in
isolated waterspouts in this area.

...Hart/Moore.. 10/06/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.