Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 06 2023 08:58:28

ACUS48 KWNS 060858
SWOD48
SPC AC 060856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

....DISCUSSION...
The potential for severe thunderstorms across the CONUS should
remain very low through early next week (Days 4/5 Monday and
Tuesday), as low-level moisture and related instability both appear
insufficient to support robust convection. Around the middle of next
week (Day 6/Wednesday), medium-range guidance is in reasonably good
agreement that some form of an upper trough will progress eastward
from the western states towards the Plains. Substantial low-level
moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of this feature will
likely be stunted to some extent by a reinforcing cold front this
upcoming weekend, and surface high pressure across the Southeast
which will be slow to erode.

Nonetheless, by late next week (around Days 7/8 Thursday and
Friday), sufficient low-level moisture may be in place to support
strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. The most
probable locations for this potentially severe convection should be
portions of the southern Plains into the lower/mid MS Valley and
Southeast. There is still substantial variability in guidance
regarding the depiction of the upper trough and related surface
features at this extended time frame, which suggest predictability
remains too low to include any 15% severe areas.

...Gleason.. 10/06/2023

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.