Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Oct 05 2023 12:31:24 ACUS01 KWNS 051231 SWODY1 SPC AC 051229 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ....Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, high-amplitude troughing now over central parts of the CONUS and Canada is forecast to shift eastward through the period, as a series of shortwaves traverse the associated cyclonic- flow field. By 12Z tomorrow, the mean trough should extend from western Hudson Bay southward over the Mississippi Valley. A compact yet pronounced shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture- channel imagery from Lake Winnipeg southward over the Red River of the North -- will pivot eastward across MN today and over parts of Lake Superior, Upper MI and eastern WI tonight. This trough then will weaken and eject northeastward over northern ON as an upstream shortwave trough -- now located over far northern to northeastern AB -- digs southeastward rapidly. The upstream trough should reach southern portions of SK/MB by 00Z, then extend across parts of SD and southern/central MN by the end of the period. Much farther south, a weaker, positively tilted perturbation is apparent near a JLN-LTS-ELP axis. This feature should reach from central MS across northern LA to south-central TX by 00Z, then weaken while moving southeastward over coastal LA and the middle/upper TX Coast by 12Z. At the surface, a cold front was evident at 11Z from eastern Upper MI to west-central MO, central OK, northwest TX, and southeastern NM. By 00Z, this front should reach Lake Huron, central IL, the Arklatex region, and southwest TX, preceded by a substantial outflow boundary now located across south TX from near BPT to south of DRT. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly along and behind the outflow boundary over TX and LA, and on both sides of the front northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes region. The only substantial instability will be south of the boundary across south TX, with strong surface heating and upper 60 to mid 70s F surface dewpoints. However, low/middle-level winds and shear will be weak, combining with the anafrontal character of the boundary to limit organization/longevity of any strong convection. While isolated hail or damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the threat remains too transient, conditional and sparse for an outlook area. ...Edwards/Thompson.. 10/05/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .