Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Oct 05 2023 07:59:32 AWUS01 KWNH 050759 FFGMPD LAZ000-TXZ000-051358- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1134 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2023 Areas affected...central, eastern, and southeastern Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 050758Z - 051358Z Summary...A mature convective complex continues to propagate southward across the ArkLaTex and portions of central and eastern Texas this morning. Heavy rainfall continues to result in flash flood potential, although this potential should become more isolated over time. Discussion...A line of deep convection has evolved from earlier convective clusters across the Red River Valley and now extends from near Shreveport to College Station to Austin. Additional convection was noted ahead of the line near and just north of the Houston Metro area. Along and ahead of this line, upper 70s F dewpoints and warm advection were helping to maintain 2000+ J/kg SBCAPE especially across southeast Texas, which should help maintain convective intensity through the morning hours. Lower instability values were noted across most of Louisiana, and ongoing drought/more stable conditions should mitigate the risk for excessive rainfall/runoff there. The focus for any potential flash flood threat this morning should exist from Austin/College Station southward through Houston Metro and the Texas Gulf Coast. In these areas, 1) sufficient buoyancy, 2) slow-moving storms, 3) cell mergers (with pre-MCS convection), 4) and wet soils from prior rainfall (including 1-3+ inch amounts from Huntsville, TX southward to the middle Texas Coast) will all support potential for excessive runoff. The MCS has been producing areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates so far this morning, and these trends will continue as the MCS moves southward and cell mergers commence. The MCS is expected to continue southward, reaching the Texas Gulf Coast later this morning. FFG thresholds are fairly low (generally around 2-2.5 inches/hr) across a broad part of the discussion area and should be challenged or even exceeded at times through 14Z. Furthermore, heavy rainfall should spread across urbanized areas between Austin and San Antonio over the next 2-3 hours from the ongoing MCS and convective mergers from cells moving in from the Junction area. Excessive, urban runoff potential exists there as well. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6lWgt2D4YrKWLcCp_diYpkyGXWM5BLqch3WIZpRjg06AlfR5LGuv4ZSQb37v8wSoMwYy= VJE7YecsK3Qo9Hz3jB_-DQU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32679470 32409401 31189353 29999390 28869505=20 28389698 28939889 29019897 29609911 30389847=20 30809733 31259621 31999548=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .