Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 05 2023 07:29:54

ACUS03 KWNS 050729
SWODY3
SPC AC 050728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

....Synopsis...
A deep longwave trough is forecast to evolve into a large
mid/upper-level cyclone over the upper Great Lakes vicinity on
Saturday. As this occurs, a cold front will move eastward across
parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, and southward across the
Gulf of Mexico. NHC is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Philippe to
evolve into a post-tropical low and be drawn north-northwestward
toward the northern New England coast Saturday night.

Dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential across most
of the CONUS, in the wake of the cold front. A narrow zone of
prefrontal low-level moisture may support modest instability and
isolated thunderstorm potential from eastern NC into parts of New
England, though this scenario remains uncertain, with some
possibility of an early frontal passage confining the best
thunderstorm chances to offshore areas. Elsewhere, lake-effect
convection may be capable of producing isolated lightning flashes
across the Great Lakes region, though coverage remains uncertain at
this forecast range. Isolated storm development cannot be ruled out
across parts of Arizona, though coverage in this area remains
uncertain as well.

...Dean.. 10/05/2023

$$

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