Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 05 2023 02:40:28

AWUS01 KWNH 050240
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-050839-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1133
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1039 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Areas affected...portions of the ArkLaTex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 050239Z - 050839Z

Summary...Concern continues that significant flash flooding could
unfold across the discussion area over the next 3-4 hours as heavy
rainfall moves into areas impacted by 4-8 inch rainfall totals
earlier today.

Discussion...Earlier convection this morning has resulted in an
east-to-west oriented outflow boundary extending from the
Arkansas/Louisiana border near El Dorado westward to near the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.  Low-level convergence along this
boundary (due to southerly low-level flow) has allowed for an
east-west oriented band of storms to develop generally from a
bowing convective segment near DFW eastward to near Texarkana.=20
This band was lifting slowly northward while producing estimated
1-2 inch/hr rain rates (locally higher).  This rainfall was
spreading into areas of southwest Arkansas and northeast Texas
that experienced extensive rainfall and flash flood impacts this
morning.  With local FFG thresholds in the 0.25 inch/hr range (due
to prior rainfall), flash flooding is expected to increase quickly
and potentially become significant over the next hour.

Some concern exists that the northward-moving band of convection
near Texarkana may begin to stall over the region as the
aforementioned bow echo moves east-southeastward along the
I-20/I-30 corridor in northeast Texas.  This scenario could result
in prolongued 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates and 4+ inch totals through
06Z, with the highest amounts occurring across water-logged areas
of southwest Arkansas and the along the Red River.  Again,
significant flash flooding is expected where this band stalls over
the next 4 hours.

Over time, the forward propagating complex near/just northeast of
Dallas will likely end the flash flood threat from west to east
(except for local areas with slowly receding waters).  The timing
of this complex suggests that the flash flood risk will likely
exist through at least 07Z or so tonight.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!89aUlzLoq4FaNUyu2OhOQJvAmvohiRQjSfx5ysx_RnpXigexUY1AXJWtDqsjBRLsruRv=
_mCS1YI4EhW6pcS3I3rf7Zs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34709458 34429312 33109243 32259346 31659543=20
            32199668 33319650 34349571=20

=3D =3D =3D
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