Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 05 2023 00:43:48

ACUS01 KWNS 050043
SWODY1
SPC AC 050042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue over the next several hours
across portions of Texas.  The greatest potential for higher-end
hail/wind risk is expected within a zone from the Big Country to
areas near and north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex over the
next few hours.

....Discussion...
As a cold front continues progressing southward across northern
Texas in tandem with the progressing mid-level trough, widespread
thunderstorms will continue across portions of the southern Plains
and vicinity.

The greatest severe risk is expected near the frontal zone the
remainder of this evening, as storms have begun to become more
linearly organized along this boundary -- in a west-southwest to
east-northeast band from southern portions of the Texas South Plains
and Big Country area to the Red River Valley area north/northeast of
the Dallas/Fort Worth area.  Here, a moist/moderately unstable
airmass (1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) will continue to fuel
vigorous updrafts, with organization supported by around 50 kt shear
in the surface to 6km layer.  Along with potential for large hail,
strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible over the next few hours.

With time, risk will diminish across central Texas, though an
increasingly solid line of storms may cross northeastern/eastern
Texas through the overnight period, with sporadic hail/wind
potential.

...Goss.. 10/05/2023

$$

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