Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2233
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 04 2023 23:06:48

ACUS11 KWNS 042306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042306=20
TXZ000-050100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Areas affected...Northwest/Southwest/West-Central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 703...704...

Valid 042306Z - 050100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 703, 704
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for large to very large hail and damaging gusts
will continue for at least the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Outflow-augmented cold front extending from far
northwest TX into the Permian Basin continues to progress gradually
southward/southeastward. Thunderstorms persist along this boundary,
supported by ample buoyancy and low-level convergence. Given the
abundance of storms and close storm proximity, a
supercell-in-cluster storm mode currently prevails, with the
strongest updrafts north of the composite outflow/cold front. Even
with most storms north of the boundary, there does appear to be a
more outflow-dominant structure to the pair of updrafts over Baylor
and King Counties in northwest TX. Warm, moist, and buoyant
conditions exists downstream of these updrafts, with steep low-level
lapse rates in place as well. Development into an organized
convective line appears probable, and the overall expectations is
that some severe potential will persist for at least the next few
hours into western portions of north TX.

Further south and west into the Permian Basin and southwest TX, a
more cellular storm mode dominants. Long hodographs have supported
splitting supercells capable of large hail thus far, which should
remain the primary risk for at least the next few hours. Strong
gusts will also remain possible, particularly with the supercell
currently in Scurry County.

...Mosier.. 10/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4kfSRwzXcQ2fQxFO9WM8tLpj6FDVTTn3mxTxLs2xRmFGYSW-SmAQw-UjaYqZFF4FtcwSgVp3F=
_SML06neaULSLj6Zyc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   30710294 31450255 32120218 32790225 33610239 33940206
            33850058 34109902 34029846 33779814 33269826 32739886
            31810005 30610058 29860184 29850254 30120305 30710294=20


=3D =3D =3D
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