Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2232
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 04 2023 22:21:53

ACUS11 KWNS 042221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042221=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-042345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Areas affected...central and eastern OK into portions of western AR
and north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 705...

Valid 042221Z - 042345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 705
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail potential will continue into this
evening. Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible. Local
extensions or a downstream watch may be needed over parts of eastern
North TX or western AR though there is uncertainty on the eastward
extent.

DISCUSSION...As of 2210 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
complex convective evolution with numerous strong to severe storms
over parts of OK and north TX. Two leading supercells over eastern
OK have slowly lost their intensities within a broad warm advection
regime. This zone of ascent will likely shift east towards western
AR and northeast TX over the next few hours supporting some
destabilization. Some hail and damaging wind potential may remain
with these cells, but a much more stable air mass over portions of
AR and northeast TX suggests a downstream watch may not be needed.

Farther west, a larger cluster of storms has begun to form over
parts of central OK and western north TX. More upscale growth has
been noted over southern portions of the watch within the last hour.
Reports of damaging gusts and the increasing number of storms
suggest wind potential may be increasing with this cluster as they
track eastward this evening. HRRR guidance also support an
increasing severe threat with time this evening as one or more
bowing segments may emerge along and north of the Red River vicinity
this evening.

...Lyons/Guyer.. 10/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-Icz-DN-eOpaJ0Br3v7SWlGIl-DttnUi0VBx-MW056B7I_-Iz8t5lW66IyODJhSvCyIJ_V9ep=
Ih1myaQt3M4ApVYZbQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33529874 33729862 34169827 34539805 34989792 35319778
            35849734 35929648 35869519 35749432 35249386 34859383
            34249395 33889414 33559445 33219483 32939534 32949586
            32959652 32979721 33019768 33099838 33289867 33529874=20


=3D =3D =3D
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