Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 04 2023 21:16:52

AWUS01 KWNH 042116
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-050315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1132
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
515 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Areas affected...North TX...much of OK...Ark-La-Tex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 042115Z - 050315Z

Summary...Organizing convection with 1-2"/hr rainfall rates will
lead to localized accumulations of 2-4" in the near-term, and 6-hr
accumulations of up to 4-6". Scattered instances of flash flooding
are likely, and some signifiacnt flash flooding is possible
(particularly across the Ark-La-Tex).

Discussion...Convection is proliferating this afternoon across the
northern extent of a broad warm sector and along a leading
stationary surface boundary, generally encompassing a large
portion of the Red River Valley of the South. A former outflow
boundary parallels much of this region as well, splitting off to
the northeast from central OK (while the stationary boundary
extends towards the southeast). The mesoscale environment is
characterized by ML CAPE of 1000-3000 J/kg, PWATs of 1.5-2.1
inches (between the 90th percentile and max moving average, per
OUN, FWD, and SHV sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear
of 35-55 kts. This parameter space is favorable for increasing
convective organization, and multi-cells are already resulting in
hourly accumulations of 1-2" (per MRMS estimates).

Additional localized accumulations of 2-4" are generally expected
through 03z, per 12z HREF PMM and more recent hourly HRRR runs
(which are in good agreement). Much of this QPF will occur over a
3-hr period, and where the best training/repeating occurs (which
for the most part will occur where convective organization into an
MCS overlaps previous rainfall, across southeast OK and adjacent
portions of North TX) there may be 6-hr accumulations that locally
exceed 5" (per 40-km HREF neighborhood exceedance probabilities of
20-50%, maximized over the already hard-hit Ark-La-Tex). Scattered
instances of flash flooding are thus considered to be likely, and
some significant flash flooding is possible (and most likely to
occur in the Ark-La-Tex).

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8YosTKUzgGnOXjXJZmI28xzBYFLpJ3ej5q60vGTn25bCN-82deCGpgTkr61iTTCXJv-9=
HZgEcZ9vMhYRBSvwO7s5KwQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36899494 35779466 34889535 34269440 33839352=20
            33089343 32649404 32519500 32419682 32649955=20
            33400143 34170082 34949976 35869841 36729653=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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