Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 04 2023 19:55:53

AWUS01 KWNH 041955
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1131
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Areas affected...West TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042000Z - 050200Z

Summary...Supercell thunderstorms capable of 1-3"/hr rainfall
rates may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Thunderstorms are firing along and ahead of a dry
line across West TX, similar to yesterday around this time in the
afternoon. The mesoscale environment is characterized by high
instability (2500-4500 J/kg of SB CAPE), PWATs of 1.1-1.5 inches
(near the 90th percentile, per MAF sounding climatology), and
effective bulk shear of 35-45 kts. This favorable environment for
robust convection (along with strong upper divergence via the
right-entrance region of a ~90 kt jet streak) will support rapid
organization of convection, supporting supercell thunderstorms
with localized rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr. While convection should
be fairly progressive (with storm motions generally 15-20 kts),
there is potential for some repeating as some storms are forming
well ahead of the dry line itself. In addition, some areas
southeast of Fort Stockton realized 2-5" of rainfall yesterday,
and these still-saturated soils have resulted in FFGs as low as
1-2". Isolated instances of flash flooding are considered to be
possible, especially if supercells track over these more sensitive
areas (or over more sensitive metro areas).

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-fA6HzN27VYG_XzKe2xMzAviND-MnAdA_n_yUE_I-YBGZYSr0C4-EW0D8CMEB8ZBdNZf=
I_KxytHbSbwxvj_1lDSbifE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32110227 31790066 30770062 30300130 30200307=20
            31120372=20

=3D =3D =3D
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