Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2230
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 04 2023 19:28:18

ACUS11 KWNS 041928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041927=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-042130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Areas affected...southern Texas Panhandle through southwest and
central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 703...

Valid 041927Z - 042130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 703
continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells posing a risk for large damaging hail and
locally strong wind gusts will continue to develop
east-northeastward toward the southern Oklahoma Interstate 35
corridor through 4-6 PM CDT, before beginning to consolidate into an
organizing cluster.  Trends are being monitored for an additional
watch eastward across the Red River Valley vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent, downstream of the
mid-level short wave trough now slowly turning across and east of
the southern Rockies, remains the focus for increasing thunderstorm
development across the southern Texas Panhandle into southwestern
Oklahoma.  This regime will continue to slowly develop
east-northeastward near and north of the Red River, toward the
southern Oklahoma Interstate 35 corridor through 21-23Z, with a
gradual consolidation and upscale growth of convection probable,
aided by low-level warm advection and frontogenetic forcing.=20=20

The boundary-layer along and south of a weak southward advancing
cold front has become characterized by sizable CAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg, along the southern periphery of 40-50 kt
west-southwesterly flow near and above 500 mb.  This environment
will maintain supercell structures which may intensify further and
pose a risk for large damaging hail and locally strong gusts for
another couple of hours.  Thereafter, as convection becomes more
widespread and an organizing cluster emerges, damaging wind gusts
may become the most prominent hazard by this evening.

...Kerr.. 10/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7qm9pHZna9HEQDYJZ-BbFnyAszWSjrTWG9GSVX-RrmxEpV2oqo7NfOnNYtmTHy2tXIHG6TQCH=
RwRyrJ27g9WTD-Qnjg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34840183 35380024 35679873 35229747 34289782 34079932
            33720130 34060216 34840183=20


=3D =3D =3D
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