Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 04 2023 16:02:49

AWUS01 KWNH 041602
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-042200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1130
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex and surroundings

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041600Z - 042200Z

Summary...Continued localized 1-3"/hr rainfall rates may result in
additional totals of 3-5". Scattered instances of flash flooding
are likely, and some may be significant.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms with 1-3"/hr rainfall rates
are locally training in the vicinity of a warm front, which is
currently draped across the Ark-La-Tex and adjacent portions of
southwest OK and northeast LA. The best deep moisture convergence
flux is located across the Ark-La-Tex proper, as the core of the
low-level (925-850 mb) jet and associated moisture transport is
directed due north fron the Upper TX Coast. The mesoscale
environment is otherwise characterized by a strong theta-e and
instability gradient (ML CAPE 500-1500 J/kg), maximized PWATs of
2.0-2.2 inches (between the max moving average and daily max
record, per SHV sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of
25-30 kts.

Continued low-level convergence and divergence aloft should
sustain convection for at least a few more hours, with localized
rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr supported by the favorable mesoscale
environment. While soils can generally take those amounts for an
hour or two, additional training and repeating of these amounts
locally has already resulted in 2-4"+ localized totals just north
and west of Texarkana. Concerningly, short-term totals via the
HRRR are projected to result in additional 3-5" localized totals
(through 22z), which may overlap with areas that have already seen
heavy rainfall. In addition, 12z HREF 40-km neighborhood
probabilities for 5" exceedance are maximized at 30-60%. As a
result, scattered instances of flash flooding are considered
likely, with an instance or two of significant flash flooding
being possible.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-BmVEBGXFgxCmngCMEvjbpTi-iHST4ox3OAE1ZhL3wEgSaakFxgnEgLWTuVoEkmWS1z0=
0Ga-OSvIJRKv3m13w_Mp9yI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34699362 34569261 34069234 33129286 32759394=20
            32839492 33219527 33989511 34579453=20

=3D =3D =3D
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