Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 04 2023 17:13:17

ACUS02 KWNS 041713
SWODY2
SPC AC 041711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Thursday.

....Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough will develop over the northern Plains
with an intense cyclonic jet pushing southeastward out of the
northern High Plains. Farther south, a leading wave associated with
scattered storms will move from OK/TX into the lower MS valley, with
a weakening trend expected. Meanwhile, various small-scale
disturbances are likely within a belt of moderate southwest flow
aloft across the OH Valley.

The primary surface low will move east across Ontario, with a cold
front extending south from the Upper Great Lakes through the MS
Valley. Low-level moisture will be maximized from eastern TX through
the lower MS Valley with dewpoints near 70 F, with low 60 F
dewpoints as far north as Lower MI contributing to weak instability.


....Central and eastern TX to Lower MI...
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
Thursday morning along the cold front from eastern TX into AR, with
the greatest thunderstorm coverage propagating southward across TX
where moisture will be plentiful. Although moist, lapse rates aloft
will be poor, with weak wind speeds through the lowest 3 km. As
such, little severe risk is expected with these storms, but a few
strong gusts cannot be ruled out with clusters during the afternoon.


Farther north within the pre-frontal warm conveyor, poor lapse
rates, weak instability and weak effective shear profiles will lead
to scattered non-severe thunderstorms from MO to Lower MI and OH.

...Jewell.. 10/04/2023

$$

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