Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2228
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 04 2023 15:01:44

ACUS11 KWNS 041501
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041501=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-041730-

Mesoscale Discussion 2228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Areas affected...the southern Texas Panhandle and adjacent Great
Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 041501Z - 041730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms are likely by Noon-2 PM CDT,
including increasing potential for supercells capable of producing
large hail.  It is not yet certain when a severe weather watch will
be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of positively-tilted mid-level troughing
digging into the southern Rockies, increasing large-scale forcing
for ascent, largely aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection,
appears to be contributing to ongoing deepening convection now
spreading east-northeastward into southern portions of the Texas
Panhandle vicinity.  The initiation of thunderstorms is already
underway, supported by destabilization associated with northward
moisture return from the Permian Basin, as a weak cold front slowly
advances southward across northwestern Oklahoma and the northern
Texas Panhandle.

Gradually, through mid day, boundary-layer moistening along and
south of the front may contribute to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, in
the presence of steepening lapse rates aided by cooling aloft.=20
Coupled with strengthening west-southwesterly flow around/above the
500 mb level (including 40+ kt around 500 mb), the environment will
become conducive to organized convection, initially including
supercells, as thunderstorms become increasingly rooted closer to
the surface.  This probably will be accompanied by an increasing
risk for large hail.

...Kerr/Grams.. 10/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_17pD1Hy94GpArWODaWWS4IbWK6ESwNDIQ5W5jIVPri1Z5nkpzvjsceRXAasWd8wMGDnWRa2P=
RntEUxhoiRNv-aAXuQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34370302 35660072 34999984 33950071 33270194 33380310
            34370302=20


=3D =3D =3D
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