Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 04 2023 12:43:18 ACUS01 KWNS 041243 SWODY1 SPC AC 041241 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains. Large to very large hail and severe winds, some of which could be significant, will be the main threats. ....TX/OK this afternoon into tonight... A surface baroclinic zone will drift only slowly southeastward the first half of the day from the TX Panhandle across northwest OK, though the boundary could be locally augmented by morning convection across northwest OK. Low-level moisture will continue to spread northward through the day, with boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F expected along and south of the front by early-mid afternoon from the TX South Plains into western/central OK. South of any lingering morning convection, surface heating will combine with the increasing low-level moisture to boost MLCAPE values into the 2000-3000 J/kg range as convective inhibition diminishes. Thunderstorm development is likely by early-mid afternoon near the front from the TX South Plains into western OK, in concert with diurnal destabilization and the approach of the southern lobe of a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward from NM. A lack of surface cyclogenesis will result in relatively weak low-level mass response and correspondingly small low-level hodographs this afternoon in the warm sector. However, straight hodographs with strong deep-layer shear will favor splitting supercells with initial storm development. These initial supercells will be capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter). Storm interactions and minimal convective inhibition will likely result in quick upscale growth into clusters/line segments by late afternoon/evening, with a corresponding increase in the threat for severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph. Outflow with the convection may become the effective cold front overnight as the storms spread southeastward, and the threat for isolated damaging/severe outflow may persist into the overnight hours into central/northeast TX. ...Thompson/Edwards.. 10/04/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .