Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 04 2023 05:56:48

ACUS01 KWNS 040556
SWODY1
SPC AC 040555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening across parts of the southern Plains. Large to very large
hail and severe winds, some of which could be significant, will be
the main threats.

....Southern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward through the central Plains
and southern Rockies today, as mid-level flow remains from the
west-southwest across much of the southern Plains. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southeastward across west Texas and
Oklahoma. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s
F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop
across much of Texas and in parts of southern Oklahoma. Increasing
low-level convergence along the front this afternoon will result in
convective initiation over a broad area from west Texas
east-northeastward across Oklahoma into far southwest Missouri. As
cell coverage increases along the front, MCS development is expected
from late afternoon into the evening.

RAP forecast soundings along and near the front by late afternoon
have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. Moderate
deep-layer shear is also forecast with 0-6 km shear mostly in the 50
to 60 knot range. This would support supercells with large hail,
especially from west Texas into southwest Oklahoma where mid-level
lapse rates are forecast to be steepest. Cells are more likely to
remain discrete along this corridor which could contribute to more
intense updrafts. Supercells that form in areas that heat up the
most could produce hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter.
A wind damage threat will also likely accompany the stronger storms
near the front, although the potential may be reduced during the
early evening with storms that get undercut by the front. The severe
threat is expected to persist into the mid evening, as the MCS moves
eastward into north-central Texas and southeast Oklahoma. A marginal
severe threat will also be possible across parts of northern and
eastern Oklahoma, but weak instability in those areas will likely
limit severe threat coverage.

...Broyles/Lyons.. 10/04/2023

$$

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