Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 04 2023 05:17:16

ACUS02 KWNS 040517
SWODY2
SPC AC 040515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Thursday.

....Synopsis...
A longwave mid/upper-level trough covering much of Canada into the
central CONUS is forecast to amplify on Thursday, as a significant
shortwave trough moves southeastward from the Canadian Prairies into
the northern Plains/upper Midwest. In advance of this system, a cold
front will move through parts of the Great Lakes. Weak convection
may develop Thursday afternoon along the front from parts of IL/IN
into parts of lower MI, but instability is currently expected to be
too meager for an organized severe threat in that region.

....Parts of central/south TX...
A positively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from
the southern Plains into parts of the Southeast on Thursday.
Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across
parts of central/south TX, but severe potential may be relatively
limited, as stronger deep-layer flow/shear and large-scale ascent
moves eastward away from the region in conjunction with the
departing shortwave. Depending on the timing of the
outflow-reinforced cold front and potential for pre-convective
heating/destabilization, there may be some potential for storms to
produce strong wind gusts across parts of south TX, but confidence
remains too low to introduce severe probabilities.

...Dean.. 10/04/2023

$$

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