Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2226
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 04 2023 02:47:13

ACUS11 KWNS 040247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040246=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-040345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Areas affected...portions of south central KS and far northwest OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 702...

Valid 040246Z - 040345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 702
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds continues across mainly
southern portions of WW702. Storms across southwest KS may intensify
as they shift eastward into the overnight, though confidence is low.

DISCUSSION...Over the last half hour, IR and composite radar imagery
showed the line of storms across south-central/southwest KS and
northwest OK has slowly intensified. While the intensification trend
has been slow, convergence along the advancing cold front and
beneath the core of the LLJ may allow for further strengthening
tonight. RAP soundings ahead of the storms show the environment
likely remains moderately unstable and sheared. With the potential
for storms to remain organized, damaging wind gusts are possible as
they shift eastward tonight. Confidence is not overly high, but the
slow intensification trend, favorable environment, and recent HRRR
guidance do suggest the severe threat may persist for a few more
hours tonight across mainly southern portions of WW702.

...Lyons.. 10/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7VFNNFf-XwMUEWEsVwUC1_cET0a6TnwS-ZuQZc640sAzrZUqKlcYADhZx_8SNPXLRCctBnsvj=
GQPHFxDwF5m9X7pSq0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36470054 37799933 37849927 38419868 38579838 38609800
            38589748 38519729 38399717 38319714 37909727 37519750
            37139779 36939803 36789839 36579902 36429960 36310017
            36470054=20


=3D =3D =3D
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