Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2225
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 04 2023 01:03:41

ACUS11 KWNS 040103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040102=20
TXZ000-040300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2225
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 700...

Valid 040102Z - 040300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 700
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will linger across ww700.

DISCUSSION...Weak 850mb inflow is expected to gradually increase
across west TX later this evening in response to approaching upper
trough. This may aid ongoing convection, to some degree, that has
struggled to advance beyond the primary instability axis. While 00z
sounding from MAF exhibited substantial buoyancy, boundary-layer
cooling and decoupling may ultimately lead to weaker updrafts over
the next few hours. Until then, gusty winds and hail are the primary
risks with the strongest updrafts.

...Darrow.. 10/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6H5wea3egtFi5ePqEm9wWtVxz6dq4KKgvzlUlXM-vGM0JRhPMSV62_lXFlDTCmLxCIlX7mhiQ=
z13-EBjEOa8KtRHQDE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30170356 32950217 32940009 30180155 30170356=20


=3D =3D =3D
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