Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2224
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 04 2023 00:19:13

ACUS11 KWNS 040019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040018=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-040145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2224
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Areas affected...far northwest OK into central KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 702...

Valid 040018Z - 040145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 702
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW702. Additional storm
development and upscale growth is likely this evening.

DISCUSSION...Over the last 90 min, storms across WW702 have produced
numerous reports of severe hail and wind. A mixed mode of supercells
and line segments has persisted within the unstable and moderately
sheared air mass. This will likely continue with storms remaining
well organized and capable of large hail damaging wind gusts, and a
tornado or two.

Additional storms have recently formed along the wind shift/surface
confluence line in southwest KS and far northwest OK. 00z surface
obs also show the cold front has begun moving eastward toward the
warm sector. As the front and increasing low-level jet impinge on
the warm and unstable air mass, further upscale growth into one or
more clusters of severe storms appears likely. This is supported by
recent HRRR runs which show increasing potential for damaging wind
gusts into central KS tonight.

...Lyons.. 10/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4LZhcxSZUPJ6ed9f2VGJ57qFGnuNsTQUQBJPw2zpo40rxoTeYgBKyS93goxCIME3VUPYwXKB6=
zS0o9kQtHktMCo-Bc4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36820041 36980058 37420042 37830019 38439999 39189897
            39859815 40029754 40019697 40009617 39159670 37859736
            37089814 36799917 36749969 36720003 36820041=20


=3D =3D =3D
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