Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2223
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 03 2023 23:56:41

ACUS11 KWNS 032356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032356=20
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-040130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Areas affected...eastern NE...southeast SD...southwest MN...and far
western IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699...701...

Valid 032356Z - 040130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 699, 701
continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms will continue to grow upscale into a QLCS.
The risk for winds and a brief tornado or two will continue.

DISCUSSION...As of 2345 UTC, regional radar analysis shows much of
the storms over NE and SD have grown upscale into a QLCS. Ahead of
this line, the environment remains weak to moderately unstable,
sufficient for storm maintenance. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear
will continue to support storm organization within the QLCS. The
linear mode will support a risk for damaging winds (some 70+ mph),
especially with any sustained bowing segments or embedded
supercells. Low-level shear should also increase into this evening
as the low-level jet strengthens over eastern NE and far southeast
SD. Area VADs already show initial signs of this with enlarging
low-level hodographs below 1 km. While storm mode and boundary-layer
RH are not optimal, a tornado or two will remain possible with
embedded supercells or QLCS features this evening. Severe trends
will be monitored over the next couple of hours for any local
extension of WW701 eastward

...Lyons.. 10/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7l5h15mxQcnW1t0qqFcqHr11oOm2h_CkSuybFYvWD9h1zHsPcHzWjNhS8IdfhrPPpLHvPYrpW=
lJ5HnDYGbmYUePzaeU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...

LAT...LON   42989587 42499582 41779574 41249573 40869581 40549590
            40199612 40079651 39889770 39999820 40079840 40299856
            40589852 41119833 41359829 42649799 42969783 43279775
            43619775 44219778 44529745 44609714 44599647 44289606
            43869599 42989587=20


=3D =3D =3D
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