Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2218
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 03 2023 19:00:40

ACUS11 KWNS 031900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031859=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-032030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Areas affected...Far West Texas into the Permian Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 031859Z - 032030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A few supercells are expected to develop this afternoon
across Far West Texas and move into the Permian Basin.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus have started to build over the Davis mountains
as temperatures have risen into the upper 80s to near 90 with
dewpoints around 60 F. This has yielded around 1500 to 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. In addition, mid level flow is increasing across the region
with 8km flow in excess of 50 knots according to the RAP. Long,
relatively straight hodographs will support splitting supercells. In
fact, some forecast hodographs actually favor left movers which may
help to sustain them through the evening. Therefore, large hail will
be the primary threat, but some severe wind gusts may be possible in
the early stages where dewpoint depressions at or above 30F are
present, and also later this evening if supercells cluster and
result in a shorter-duration severe wind gust threat. A severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by later this afternoon.

...Bentley/Grams.. 10/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9yWTF6gfr_Jm46YyDbsMKHR7EdrcqOEseapU3eubsCPWUv0uH7ZUu-kY8zdfQ89YQiGUlP-CB=
69wqLxX9EiCMOIPNOs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31630445 32040391 32350261 32230160 31470128 30470140
            30080216 29890361 30010424 30030434 30140442 30480448
            31200426 31630445=20


=3D =3D =3D
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