Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2217 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 03 2023 17:05:09 ACUS11 KWNS 031705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031704=20 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-031900- Mesoscale Discussion 2217 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Areas affected...southwestern into central Nebraska...western Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20 Valid 031704Z - 031900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Increasing strong thunderstorm development is likely within the next few hours, with the gradual evolution of an intensifying and organizing squall line possible by 3-5 PM CDT across south central Nebraska into western Kansas. DISCUSSION...Stronger mid-level height falls have already overspread much of the northern into central Great Plains. However, one significant short wave perturbation, embedded within the large-scale troughing emerging from the Intermountain West, is still in the process of migrating across and northeast of the southern Colorado Rockies, with a 50-60 kt southwesterly 500 mb jet streak now nosing northeast of the Raton Mesa vicinity. Large-scale forcing for ascent downstream of this perturbation may already be contributing to ongoing increasing thunderstorm development, and latest model output suggests that a substantive further increase in storms is likely by 20-22Z, if not a bit earlier. Strongest boundary-layer destabilization is becoming focused near/east of a weak low within lee surface troughing, across the eastern Colorado border vicinity through western Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. This is being supported by low-level moisture advection and steepening lapse rates aided by insolation beneath the leading edge of mid-level cooling. Mixed-layer CAPE already appears to be increasing in excess of 1000 J/kg within this corridor, and this could approach 2000 J/kg by late afternoon, as it tends to advect northeastward and eastward through south central Nebraska and western Kansas. This should provide support for the greatest concentration of stronger thunderstorm development, which may include the eventual evolution of an organizing squall line with increasing potential to produce strong wind gusts, in addition to severe hail. A few relatively brief tornadoes may also be possible. ...Kerr/Grams.. 10/03/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!67jfH6zXZaLdtJBjTurA5tBZne-CLDuD1VGtfPakIOcQB93SOumkcDivp1m-7kxCnZ7TjE7pP= L653iTP_9BSfRKuUzg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39940251 40910115 41590030 41179819 39819884 38339921 37060045 38840140 39940251=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .