Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2216
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 03 2023 02:47:04

ACUS11 KWNS 030247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030246=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-030415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023

Areas affected...portions of far southeastern NM and west TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697...

Valid 030246Z - 030415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697
continues.

SUMMARY...Hail and damaging wind gusts will remain possible over
mainly southern portions of WW697.

DISCUSSION...Across WW697, earlier convection has grown upscale into
widespread  precipitation shield with embedded storms over much of
the southwestern TX Panhandle. While occasional damaging gusts and
an instance of hail will remain possible with the strongest storms,
nocturnal stabilization and convective overturning appear to be
limiting the severe threat. The severe risk appears concentrated
over southern portions of the watch area with two supercells over
Winkler and Lea Counties. Here, the air mass remains more unstable
with approximately 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Located near the core of the
intensifying low-level jet, enhanced convergence and ascent may
allow severe convection to persist into the overnight hours. Should
this occur, large hail and damaging gusts appear likely before
storms shift farther east into a less favorable air mass.

...Lyons.. 10/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6n-qeQOt5fe1imVN0sh_L8LEluVjfHerUigj1uyB1rB2xQ6iAz9ZubZ9Dvb1Oa70l2f-8vlu7=
A-1vZiVlmb0f7eA-m4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31570349 31900361 32230366 32860348 33270266 33400225
            33050205 32560206 32030213 31540254 31520344 31570349=20


=3D =3D =3D
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