Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 03 2023 00:53:04 ACUS01 KWNS 030053 SWODY1 SPC AC 030051 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and wind damage, will be possible this evening across parts of the southern and central High Plains. ....Southern High Plains... The latest water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest, with cyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow located over the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. At the surface, a south-to-north oriented trough is located in eastern New Mexico, along which surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. Moderate instability is currently analyzed by the RAP along and near the surface trough, where scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing. MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range along this corridor. In addition, the WSR-88D VWPs near Tucumcari and Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 40 and 50 knot range. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km, evident on forecast soundings, will continue to support supercell development this evening. Supercells will likely be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. The severe threat is expected to continue into the mid to late evening. ....Central High Plains... The latest water-vapor imagery has a lead shortwave trough over the central Rockies and central High Plains this evening. Mid-level flow is from the south-southwest across much of the central Plains. At the surface, a 1004 mb low is located in northeastern Colorado. A corridor of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP from near the surface low northeastward into central Nebraska. Scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing to the west of the instability corridor from north-central Colorado into western Nebraska and far southwestern South Dakota. In addition, the RAP is showing moderate deep-layer shear across much of the central Rockies and central High Plains, where 0-6 km shear is estimated to be in the 40 to 50 knot range. The RAP also has 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across parts of the central High Plains. This environment will likely continue to support a severe threat for a few more hours this evening, see MCD 2213. Organized multicells and isolated rotating storms may produce wind damage and hail. ...Broyles.. 10/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .