Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2214
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 03 2023 00:40:37

ACUS11 KWNS 030040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030040=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-030215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2214
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023

Areas affected...far northeast NM...the northwestern TX/OK
Panhandles...southeast CO and far southwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 030040Z - 030215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may pose a risk for isolated
damaging gusts and hail for a few more hours tonight. However, it is
unclear how long or how far east the threat may persist.

DISCUSSION...Over the last 30-60 min, new convective development,
and some intensification has been noted with scattered severe storms
ongoing across parts of northeastern NM and southeast CO. Likely
driven by the beginnings of the nocturnal low-level jet (observed
from the AMA and PUB VADs), isolated hail and damaging gusts appear
possible with the strongest storms for a few more hours. What
remains unclear is how far east and how long the severe threat will
persist this evening. The loss of diurnal heating and a cooler
boundary layer suggest, nocturnal stabilization will begin to limit
the potential for strong, surface-based updrafts over the next 1-2
hours. Regardless, the increasing low-level jet and lingering
buoyancy may support some risk for strong gusts or hail over parts
of CO, KS and TX/OK. Convective trends will be monitored for any
increase in severe coverage or duration that would warrant the need
for a weather watch.

...Lyons/Edwards.. 10/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6hef1rmwdUB8vxK5c-ncTNEaRxSiMKWzQdNI-pjvfBxWDEoPc6Kl6StUFbWvcHudd65Ccyuk8=
Z4sS1ZyeWl9pRNYqas$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36070159 35730182 35740259 35800284 35910327 36080362
            36410379 37450345 37890254 38120200 38130159 37990126
            37810109 37390116 36820130 36460146 36070159=20


=3D =3D =3D
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