Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2211
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 02 2023 20:29:34

ACUS11 KWNS 022029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022029=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-022200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696...

Valid 022029Z - 022200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and severe wind gusts continues
in watch 696.

DISCUSSION...Several, widely-spaced supercells have developed across
eastern New Mexico. At least two of these supercells have reported
severe hail with hail up to the size of golf balls in Eddy County,
NM. Expect large hail to remain the primary threat over the next few
hours as supercell remains the dominant mode. Low-level hodographs
are not that favorable for tornadoes at this time, but RAP forecast
soundings continue to show improvement in the low-level hodograph
this evening. Therefore, there remains a favorable window this
evening where storms may remain supercells and the low-level wind
field may improve sufficiently for some tornado potential. However,
by later in the evening, upscale growth into linear segments is
anticipated and severe wind gusts will become the primary threat.

...Bentley.. 10/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7tptv6YN_UfiSULMF6Yb3blorhZY8kXadfUazZ_nUtc2SZjNXFpBtTySOAV0lvzyOOWSerZRt=
ame97Ho_kQk9SjhkYI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32080469 33020498 33550524 34930559 35600546 36390517
            36960443 36990334 36920304 35130310 33430313 32360305
            31670273 31140250 30470252 30420324 31200433 32080469=20


=3D =3D =3D
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