Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Oct 02 2023 19:25:33 AWUS01 KWNH 021925 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-022350- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1124 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 324 PM EDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Areas affected...eastern NM into western TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 021923Z - 022350Z SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are likely to increase in coverage across eastern NM and portions of western TX through 00Z. Some instances of flash flooding will be possible with rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour )or less than an hour). DISCUSSION...Increasing ascent is being realized over NM, out ahead of an upper level trough advancing eastward through AZ. Visible satellite and regional radar imagery at 19Z showed scattered thunderstorms from the AZ/NM border into eastern NM and southern CO. An anomalous plume of moisture remained in place to the east of the higher terrain over the southern High Plains with standardized precipitable water anomalies of +1.5 to +2.5 from near the Guadalupe Mountains to southwestern KS. The erosion of earlier cloud cover over east-central and northeastern NM has allowed for more favorable solar insolation and MLCAPE of 500-2000 J/kg via the 19Z SPC mesoanalysis. Sufficient shear was in place aloft to support organized thunderstorms with the potential for mesocyclones supporting efficient rainfall production. Expectations are for continued thunderstorm development, initially along some of the favored high terrain of the Sacramento and Sangre De Cristo Mountains with the diurnal cycle boosted by forcing ahead of the advancing trough from over the Southwest. However, a few cells were already noted to the east of the higher mountains over the NM Plains and northern TX Panhandle. Increasingly diffluent flow aloft over the southern High Plains and the onset of the low level jet increasing around 00Z will support numerous thunderstorm across the region into the evening hours. Individual cell motions should be toward the northeast at a progressive 25 to 40 kt but some training and repeating of cells is likely at times where alignment of cells within the southwesterly flow occurs and as thunderstorm coverage increases. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr or 1-2 inches in less than an hour should be expected which could produce areas flash flooding, especially across sensitive burn scars and locations which picked up heavy rain over the past week, most notably in portions of eastern NM. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5fiJ_pbz9VjnPWrWVO8tMV9n8COdikUYadsHA6ZiG7hQT1Pt4Cw0nuYn-iK0ykbXvVhQ= xpm7UPcrMUmwQ_WA3UN7fHQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37030339 36970242 36560170 36230146 35640157=20 34090211 31900265 30950305 30830420 31280519=20 32080577 33140603 34690623 36150576 36710491=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .