Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 02 2023 17:13:26

AWUS01 KWNH 021713
FFGMPD
TXZ000-022115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1123
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
112 PM EDT Mon Oct 02 2023

Areas affected...Southern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021708Z - 022115Z

SUMMARY...A localized flash flood threat will continue across
portions of the South TX Plains to the coastline through ~21Z.
High rainfall rates of 1-2 inches in 15-30 minutes may support a
location or two receiving 3-4 inches.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery from KCRP showed showers and
thunderstorms moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico into portions
of the South TX Plains, between Aransas Bay and points southward.
However there's been a focus for the heaviest rain in the vicinity
of Corpus Christi, with a Wunderground.com station showing ~1 inch
of rain in 15 minutes near Corpus Christi NAS ending 1545Z. The
storms were located along a remnant frontal boundary that extended
WNW from the Gulf to just south of NQI where low level
confluent/convergent flow was being enhanced by a weak low north
of BRO along a surface trough. Low level flow was oriented from
the E and SE, allowing brief training where cells aligned with the
steering flow and supporting intense rainfall rates. The
environment contained ~3000 J/kg MLCAPE and PWATs within a couple
of tenths of an inch from 2 inches (16Z SPC mesoanalysis), not too
dissimilar from the 12Z CRP sounding.

Narrow axes of heavy rain will continue to affect locations from
the Lower TX Coast to 100-150 miles inland for another few hours.
By 21Z, the low/surface trough near BRO is expected to have
weakened/re-oriented to the west while the axis of low level winds
weakens and begins to focus farther northward up the coast into a
more stable environment. Prior to 21Z, the potential will exist
for a quick 3-4 inches of rain if bands of heavy rain are able to
maintain over a given location for about an hour or so, which
remains a localized possibility. The flash flood threat will
remain and perhaps best focus over population centers with lowered
surface permeability.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-UYR9c_bF_k72SLMjHByi7M8ANk5XD0ECnbVGxv7Q9X0kKNPty74Hpe0vXMr0-iUPcAo=
TkWLodzGoMzQ3xeBkBASbMI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   29179900 29069855 28759803 28319734 27959676=20
            27559701 27139723 27129799 27289849 27899920=20
            28019924 28979941=20

=3D =3D =3D
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