Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Oct 02 2023 07:17:01 ACUS03 KWNS 020716 SWODY3 SPC AC 020715 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OK INTO SOUTHWEST TX AND THE PERMIAN BASIN... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest Oklahoma to southwest Texas/Permian Basin on Wednesday. ....Synopsis and Discussion... Upper troughing is expected to extend from Saskatchewan southwestward through the Four Corners early Wednesday morning, with upper ridging in place downstream from the western Gulf of Mexico into southern Quebec. This upper troughing is forecast to gradually progress eastward throughout the period while slightly losing amplitude. At the surface, an extensive cold front will likely extend from far northwestern Ontario southwestward through the Upper Midwest, central Plains, and TX Panhandle. Northern portion of this front will move steadily eastward/southeastward throughout the day, while the southern portion stalls. By the late afternoon/early evening, the southern portion of the front will likely extend from southeast KS across central OK and into northwest TX. A relatively moist air mass will precede the front across the southern Plains, with afternoon dewpoints likely in the upper 60s/low 70s. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across central and eastern OK Wednesday morning, potentially supporting the sharpening of a differential heating boundary. This would confine any severe potential to southwest/south-central portion of OK southward into southwest TX. Guidance generally agrees with this scenario, with strong heating south of this boundary contributing to moderate/strong buoyancy and the potential for severe thunderstorms. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is anticipated, but low-level shear will be relatively weak, and there is still uncertainty regarding frontal positions. These factors merit keeping severe probabilities low with this outlook, although increased severe probabilities may be needed once forecast details become more predictable. ...Mosier.. 10/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .