Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 01 2023 23:33:40 AWUS01 KWNH 012333 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-020530- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1122 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 733 PM EDT Sun Oct 01 2023 Areas affected...eastern NM into western TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 012331Z - 020530Z SUMMARY...Expanding thunderstorm coverage with periods of training will maintain an isolated flash flood threat across eastern NM into portions of western TX through 05Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible on a localized basis. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery across the southern High Plains at 23Z showed scattered thunderstorms from the northern TX Panhandle into eastern NM and southward into far western TX. A couple of storms across the region have had a history of 1-2 in/hr rates (MRMS) and the coverage of cells was increasing across eastern NM. Moisture across the region was anomalous (1 to 2 standard deviations above the mean via PWATs of ~1.0 to 1.3 inches) owing to a low level moisture feed from the western Gulf of Mexico and mid-upper level moisture streaming northward from the eastern tropical Pacific. Within this plume of anomalous moisture was a pool of MLCAPE, estimated to range from ~500 to 2500 J/kg from central regions of the northern TX Panhandle into southeastern NM according to the 23Z SPC mesoanalysis. The synoptic setup is not all that different than 24 hours ago with a large and slow moving upper low/trough over the western U.S. and an elongated ridge over the MS River Valley. Winds in the 0-2 km layer across the southern High Plains are expected to increase from their current values near 20 kt to near 40 kt through 06Z, supporting an axis of low level speed convergence, oriented from SSW to NNE, at its leading edge over eastern NM into western TX. The eastward translation of the base of the upper trough out west will act to increase upper level diffluence downstream, although effects over eastern NM should remain rather modest through 06Z. Some continued increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected over the next couple of hours due to the increasing low level jet and remaining instability with storms occasionally aligning with the mean steering flow from SSW to NNE, supporting axes of training. 1-2 in/hr rates will be possible and localized flash flooding as a result. Outside of a few areas in eastern NM into far western TX and the OK Panhandle which received rainfall over the past few days, dry antecedent conditions and the localized occurrence of training should limit the flash flood threat to isolated coverage. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Jx9qH-6qQOwAMYoW5rT5bOJid0X21RfjBwU4D5_nCsQ0JOpEaLHysuGtp9iRyTQku7-= wBfWQFRoM3dsAbw8Fm-ETp0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...EPZ...LUB...MAF...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37000223 36980179 36790137 36140151 34650202=20 33830239 31200329 30570392 30570485 31050524=20 32310552 33690542 35560440 36790313=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .