Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 01 2023 20:00:56 ACUS01 KWNS 012000 SWODY1 SPC AC 011959 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts will be possible until around 10 PM MDT in eastern New Mexico to far west Texas. ....20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northeastward across the TX/OK Panhandles into extreme southwest KS, downstream of developing storms north/west of Amarillo. Otherwise, no changes have been made to the severe probabilities. One strong storm has recently developed across Lincoln County, NM, with isolated supercell development still possible later this afternoon into this evening from eastern NM into far west TX. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 2207 regarding the short-term severe threat in eastern NM. ...Dean.. 10/01/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023/ ....Eastern NM and far west TX... A plume of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s has enveloped much of eastern NM into west TX and will support a more buoyant air mass later this afternoon relative to yesterday. But the presence of low-level stratus this morning has slowed boundary-layer heating and will temper MLCAPE values to an extent. Still, a confined corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE should develop where cloud breaks are evident across southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are most probable over the higher terrain in this region and should regenerate from mid-afternoon through at least early evening. While deep-layer vertical shear should be modest across much of the area, a narrow zone of effective bulk shear approaching 30 kts should develop in a portion of east-central/southeast NM where low-level south-southeasterlies persist beneath moderate mid-level southwesterlies. This should yield potential for a few slow-moving supercells, although there is uncertainty in just how warm the boundary layer will actually get where the better shear environment exists. Even so, isolated large hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats, with localized severe gusts tending to focus farther south into the Trans-Pecos where surface heating is greater. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .