Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2207
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 01 2023 19:19:25

ACUS11 KWNS 011919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011918=20
NMZ000-012145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2207
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023

Areas affected...eastern NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011918Z - 012145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
develop between 2-4pm CDT.  Isolated large hail (max diameter
1.25-1.75 inches) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) are possible with the
stronger storms.  The overall isolated nature of the threat will
probably preclude a severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a stratocumulus field
eroding across the Eastern Plains of NM with agitated cumulus and
the initial thunderstorms located near the higher terrain.  Surface
analysis shows a moist plume extending north-northwest through the
Pecos River Valley.  Conditions range from the upper 70s to near 80
deg F in southeast NM and the upper 60s near Santa Rosa in
east-central NM where cloud cover has eroded more slowly.  Surface
dewpoints range from the lower-mid 60s in southeast NM to the middle
50s immediately east of the Sangre de Cristos near I-25 in northern
NM.=20=20

Continued warming will lead to further destabilization with MLCAPE
1500-2500 J/kg forecast by late afternoon.  Although any
strong/severe risk will likely remain localized through mid
afternoon, a gradual increase in storm intensity is expected as a
few organized storms evolve during the late afternoon/early evening.
Large hail will be possible with the stronger updrafts that achieve
supercell status.  Severe gusts will be possible mostly with storms
that can aggregate cold pools and may evolve into a cluster during
the early evening.

...Smith/Grams.. 10/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_gQuR6ZpyiN2UlqKBQbruIZMcG3eiYPynrt4vq2s1_PisCfxU7O_KwQ6aZF9hGqbZ9TkSxTZI=
l6AjjXpjkJPI_j5AHw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   35440543 35920520 36330475 36400440 36330406 36060373
            32450381 32160411 32040441 32050489 32530523 33340544
            35440543=20


=3D =3D =3D
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