Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 01 2023 17:30:24

ACUS02 KWNS 011730
SWODY2
SPC AC 011728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NM AND WEST TX...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible Monday over parts of
eastern New Mexico and west Texas, with more isolated severe storms
possible farther north across the central/northern High Plains. Hail
and damaging gusts will be the primary risks.

....Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough over the western CONUS is forecast to move
eastward on Monday. Within the broader-scale trough, one prominent
shortwave is forecast to move from the central/northern Rockies into
the northern High Plains, while another shortwave moves through the
base of the longwave trough across the southern Rockies. A surface
low is forecast to deepen across the central High Plains during the
day, before moving northeastward Monday evening. A weaker surface
trough is expected to largely remain in place across parts of NM and
west TX.

....Parts of eastern NM/west TX...
Persistent southeasterly flow will support a modest increase in
low-level moisture across parts of NM and west TX on Monday. Morning
convection may tend to persist across parts of northeast NM through
the day, but away from early-day convection, moderate
destabilization will support renewed vigorous storm development
during the afternoon across eastern NM. Moderate southwesterly
midlevel flow will support 30-40 kt of effective shear, and a few
supercells may develop by late afternoon. Hail and localized severe
gusts will likely be the primary initial threats. A brief tornado or
two may also be possible, especially if any supercell can persist
into the early evening, when some increase in 0-1 km shear/SRH is
expected in response to an modestly strengthening low-level jet. A
few stronger cells/clusters may persist into mid/late evening, with
at least an isolated severe hail/wind threat continuing across parts
of west TX.

....Northern/central Plains...
Weaker low-level moisture return and buoyancy is expected across the
central/northern High Plains on Monday, compared to areas farther
south. However, steep midlevel lapse rates and ascent attendant to
the prominent embedded shortwave trough will support vigorous
afternoon storm development from eastern WY into western NE/SD.
Deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a couple of
supercells may be possible initially, with a tendency for upscale
growth into the northern High Plains where stronger large-scale
ascent attendant to the shortwave is expected.

At least isolated hail and severe gusts will be possible across the
region, though the magnitude of the threat remains uncertain, with
relatively limited buoyancy, and potential for the stronger and
longer-lived storms to be somewhat elevated to the north of a warm
front draped across the Dakotas. Severe potential may be relatively
greater from northeast WY into western SD, in closer proximity to
the ejecting shortwave trough and surface low, but confidence is too
low to introduce greater unconditional probabilities at this time.

...Dean.. 10/01/2023

$$

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