Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 01 2023 14:23:31 AWUS01 KWNH 011423 FFGMPD FLZ000-012022- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1120 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1023 AM EDT Sun Oct 01 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 011422Z - 012022Z Summary...Flash flooding will be possible across portions of the eastern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon due to slow-moving thunderstorms producing intense rain rates. Localized rain totals of 3 to 6 inches will be possible through mid-afternoon. Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning across portions of the eastern Florida Peninsula, focused in primarily two different areas, one near Daytona Beach southward through the Space Coast while another area forming just offshore southeast Florida near Fort Lauderdale. This activity is aligned with the persistent onshore flow regime and aided by the stationary front positioned just to the north. The environment through the afternoon is expected to remain conducive for heavy rain. Precipitable water values of 2-2.5" have been analyzed this morning (12Z MFL PW was 2.46", near the daily max from the SPC sounding climatology). Meanwhile, the latest mesoanalysis showed favorable amounts of instability through the region, characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE right along the coast. Favorable low level convergence right along the coast is helping to focus the deepest cores this morning. The latest model guidance, including recent HRRR runs and the 06Z HREF probabilities, all point toward isolated/localized intense rain rates and totals near/on the coast through this afternoon. The initial greater threat will be across east-central Florida but up and down the coast pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible until the frontal boundary sags southward through the area. HREF 2" hourly total probabilities are above 50-60 percent this morning and remain elevated (20-30 percent) through this afternoon. Isolated 3"+ hourly totals will be possible (10-20 percent HREF probabilities). Through mid-afternoon, isolated totals of 3-6" will be possible. These rainfall amounts and intensity (high rain rates) over the more urbanized corridor could result in isolated/localized flash flooding, particularly given the wet antecedent conditions in place for parts of the area. Taylor ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6X-WrYyYzUClZfE7LUaXoUNbTdMWG0NQcquHh3SeJOGJxSvmkSO7jBetmcDQjpAT4DVd= gxfcjZ_7gAQDSxcHWEwvkKw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 28918092 28888064 28158039 27638019 27127996=20 26587983 26137981 25798001 25418034 25888044=20 26568029 26998035 27318051 27898079 28288099=20 28698111=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .