Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 01 2023 12:45:56 ACUS01 KWNS 011245 SWODY1 SPC AC 011244 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM... ....SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts will be possible this afternoon through late evening across eastern New Mexico. ....Synopsis... Around the periphery of a closed low over NV, one embedded shortwave trough will rotate northward today over southeast ID and weaken, while an upstream speed max translates from southern CA to AZ. East of the midlevel low, a deep band of south-southwesterly flow will persist from NM to the northern High Plains. A lee cyclone is expected in the vicinity of southeast WY and a weak lee trough will extend southward to NM. A slow-moving cold front will extend north-northeastward from the lee cyclone into the western Dakotas by tonight. ....Eastern NM area this afternoon/evening... Overnight convection has dissipated across the southern High Plains and surface heating is expected through the afternoon in cloud breaks. A continued feed of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s into eastern NM will combine with daytime heating to produce MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development will occur immediately east of the higher terrain by early-mid afternoon and storms will persist through late evening. Deep-layer vertical shear will be rather modest this far east (effective bulk shear of 25-30 kt), but there will be some increase in hodograph curvature this evening. The net result will be the potential for a few multicell clusters and/or supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts for several hours later this afternoon through late evening. ....Northern High Plains through tonight... A corridor of near 60 F boundary-layer dewpoints is present across ND this morning, though this area will largely remain capped through the period. Somewhat lesser moisture (dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s) resides farther south into the central High Plains. As such, buoyancy will be somewhat limited today across the northern High Plains, with the only shallow ascent expected atop the surface cold front. The combination of an anafrontal regime with minimal warm sector ascent and rather weak deep-layer shear suggests that severe storms are unlikely. ...Thompson/Leitman.. 10/01/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .