Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 01 2023 07:24:55

ACUS03 KWNS 010724
SWODY3
SPC AC 010723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are most likely on Tuesday from western
Texas into parts of Kansas.

....Central and Southern Plains...
A large/amplified upper trough will move east across the Plains on
Tuesday, with a 50-60 kt midlevel wave moving from CO/NM into the
central Plains. Height falls will be focused in this area, as well
as northward across the northern Plains.

A plume of low-level moisture characterized by upper 50s F to lower
60s F dewpoints will likely extend northward across KS and into the
eastern Dakotas/western MN during the afternoon, while mid 60s F
dewpoints extend as far north as northwest TX. Upper 60s to lower
70s F dewpoints will exist farther south into central TX during the
day, but will push north overnight toward the Red River by 12Z
Wednesday.

Areas of morning thunderstorms may be ongoing from parts of western
KS into the TX Panhandle, but air mass recovery is likely due to
strengthening south/southwest flow. By afternoon, a plume of 2000
J/kg MUCAPE is forecast from western TX into western KS, along with
40-50 kt effective shear.  While hodographs are forecast to be
relatively straight, some areas may see effective SRH over 200
m2/s2, and supercells will be possible. Large hail, perhaps a couple
tornadoes and damaging gusts may occur with the afternoon and
evening activity as it redevelops after about 21Z. The instability
plume is forecast to remain narrow, which may limit the eastward
extent of the severe risk.

...Jewell.. 10/01/2023

$$

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