Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 30 2023 12:45:46 ACUS01 KWNS 301245 SWODY1 SPC AC 301244 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NM INTO CO...AND FROM NORTHWEST AZ INTO UT... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong-severe gusts may occur this afternoon/evening across portions of the New Mexico/Colorado, and from northwest Arizona into western and central UT. ....NM/CO this afternoon/evening... Low-midlevel moisture will continue to increase gradually from NM into CO through tonight, to the east of the developing midlevel low over NV. Surface heating in cloud breaks will boost MLCAPE to the 500-1000 J/kg range across central/eastern NM by later this afternoon with minimal convective inhibition, with weaker buoyancy to the north into CO. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon and continue through late evening from NM into southern/central CO. Though the stronger mid-upper flow will remain farther west, inverted-V profiles will favor a few strong-severe outflow gusts with multicell clusters. ....UT/northwest AZ area this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough now over CA will evolve into a closed low over NV later today into tonight. On its eastern periphery, a baroclinic zone will spread eastward from central NV this morning to western UT this evening. Ascent along the front will help focus the development of a band of convection by this evening from northwest AZ into western UT, and the convection will spread northeastward into tonight. Buoyancy will be relatively weak (MUCAPE near 500 J/kg), but strong midlevel flow and lingering steep low-level lapse rates will favor the potential for downward momentum transport and a few strong-severe gusts. ....MN/WI today... Elevated convection is ongoing this morning over northern WI in a zone of warm advection on the nose of a 40 kt low-level jet. The convection is expected to weaken through the morning as warm advection likewise diminishes. The potential for diurnal, surface-based convection is limited along the slow-moving front across MN through this afternoon, given background height rises and no appreciable forcing for ascent in an environment with weak deep-layer vertical shear. Overall, the threat for large hail appears too low to warrant maintaining any outlook areas. ...Thompson/Leitman.. 09/30/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .